Gold Technical Analysis

By Jonah S. Ford Precious metals took a huge hit in last week’s volatile trading, dragged lower by falling prices in the equities as well as the broader commodities complex. Gold futures were the first to break down through long term key level support as outlined in last week’s Autochartist commodities update. Silver futures quickly followed suit, dropping to the lowest price in months after falling through support near the $31.00 before falling briefly into the $28 handle. With all eyes watching for signs of a cyclical precious metals bottom to be confirmed in the trading week ahead, a chart analysis reveals some signs of optimism for silver. The severity of the sell-off likely encouraged some panic selling and large position liquidation as stop-loss orders were triggered. The subsequent bounce from the lows was equally impressive, however, with the price coming up $1.50 per ounce from the lows by Friday’s settlement. The price action from the low aligns with a Channel Up chart...

By Jonah S. Ford Sugar futures showed impressive strength during last week’s commodities sell-off, indicating the market may have enough intrinsic strength to buck the broader trend and move higher on its own. After a prolonged sideways movement near the low end of a textbook Channel Down chart pattern, the price bumped just above resistance going into the close of the market on Friday. The pattern is best seen here on the Autochartist 240-minute time frame, identified as a completed pattern now that the breakout has occurred. The pattern scores high marks in all categories except the breakout momentum, with an overall Quality ranking of 7 bars. The low momentum score reflects the soft breach of the resistance with no follow-through as of yet. However, given the extreme weakness in most commodities last week, and the overall pessimism in the broader markets, traders are likely to view even the modest rise above the breakout level as being significant. The price for sugar is...

By Jonah S. Ford Wheat futures drifted towards a retest of key level support in Thursday’s session, as identified by Autochartist and shown here on the hourly chart. This push lower indicates a likely continuation towards the horizontal trend line at 573.75 cents per bushel, where a confirmation of the support will be needed if the market is to recover and turn higher. The Autochartist Key Level indicator scores the significance of this approach to support at a high 9 bars, with the multiple successful tests of the level over the course of the month highlighting the technical strength of this price. A continuation of selling pressure to below 573.75 cents per bushel would signal a failure of the level and may set in motion another substantial downtrend in the near term. Conversely a rebound after moving to this level would make for a solid long entry spot on the chart, with a stop-loss order placed beneath the zone to protect the position....

By Jonah S. Ford A chart analysis of the Comex Gold futures reveals the week ahead may prove to be a pivotal one. Autochartist has identified multiple support lines on the Key Level indicator platform. These key levels are all converging between $1,700 and $1,708 per ounce, which lies just beneath Friday’s trading range. Gold has already rebounded from this support zone several times in recent rally attempts. The rallies have met resistance as broader commodities and equity markets continue to find solid footing amidst the record-setting volatility. The failed rallies have set up an intermediate term trading range in the form of Pennant chart pattern, illustrated here on the 30-minute time interval. The pattern is a near textbook image of a classic pennant, with well defined support and resistance levels. The internal readings show a ranking of 8 bars for Uniformity, Initial Trend, and overall Quality, with a 9-bar Clarity score. Gold held the support in Friday’s session and is now poised...

By Jonah S. Ford Platinum futures followed the rest of the precious metals complex sharply lower in Monday’s session on renewed signs of global economic weakness. The slide in the metals was telegraphed early on when major support levels in gold, silver, platinum and palladium all triggered stop-loss orders with no buying interest materializing at the lower prices. Autochartist identified multiple key level breakdowns on most time frames. Platinum dropped to new lows near the $1,480 per ounce level to settle on a major technical support provided by the bottom of a Falling Wedge chart pattern. This pattern, illustrated here on the Autochartist 240-minute time frame, has seen several retests of support through the long term decline from $1,700 per ounce. As the price falls further from the resistance at the top of the wedge, the potential for a downside breakout from this formation increases. Renewed weakness in the precious metals as the week progresses would likely trigger a sell signal for platinum...

By Jonah S. Ford Platinum futures followed the rest of the precious metals complex sharply lower in Monday’s session on renewed signs of global economic weakness. The slide in the metals was telegraphed early on when major support levels in gold, silver, platinum and palladium all triggered stop-loss orders with no buying interest materializing at the lower prices. Autochartist identified multiple key level breakdowns on most time frames. Platinum dropped to new lows near the $1,480 per ounce level to settle on a major technical support provided by the bottom of a Falling Wedge chart pattern. This pattern, illustrated here on the Autochartist 240-minute time frame, has seen several retests of support through the long term decline from $1,700 per ounce. As the price falls further from the resistance at the top of the wedge, the potential for a downside breakout from this formation increases. Renewed weakness in the precious metals as the week progresses would likely trigger a sell signal for platinum...

By Jonah S. Ford Unleaded Gas held key support at the $4.00 per gallon level before reversing higher to form a potentially bullish pattern for the week ahead. The price has been meandering inside of a large downtrend that forms a Flag chart pattern on the hourly time frame. After rebounding from the price support shown at $3.98 per gallon, the market pressed gradually higher to the upper resistance trend line created by the flag. Monday’s session should either confirm a breakout by a move higher in the gasoline (which should be accompanied by a commensurate rise in crude oil), or re-establish this trend line as key resistance by falling back towards the middle of the pennant. Traders should be watching this near term resistance level for confirmation if a breakout occurs, as it could signal the end of the current downtrend which began at the $4.20 per gallon level. Weakness coming into the market near $4.06 per gallon would set up for...

By Jonah S. Ford A chart analysis of the Comex Gold futures reveals the week ahead may prove to be a pivotal one. Autochartist has identified multiple support lines on the Key Level indicator platform. These key levels are all converging between $1,700 and $1,708 per ounce, which lies just beneath Friday’s trading range. Gold has already rebounded from this support zone several times in recent rally attempts. The rallies have met resistance as broader commodities and equity markets continue to find solid footing amidst the record-setting volatility. The failed rallies have set up an intermediate term trading range in the form of Pennant chart pattern, illustrated here on the 30-minute time interval. The pattern is a near textbook image of a classic pennant, with well defined support and resistance levels. The internal readings show a ranking of 8 bars for Uniformity, Initial Trend, and overall Quality, with a 9-bar Clarity score. Gold held the support in Friday’s session and is now poised...

By Jonah S. Ford Grain futures bucked the trend of the broader commodities sector to close well off their session lows. Thursday’s volatility and higher close comes ahead of Friday’s monthly USDA crop report, which may prove supportive of the late-day rally. Corn futures appeared to be the strongest performer, breaking out from a longstanding Falling Wedge chart pattern identified by Autochartist.     Corn has been plumbing the depths of recent contract lows around the key support level of $5.75 per bushel with minimal buying interest. Thursday’s move above the Falling Wedge resistance sets the stage for a possible recovery in the near term. The pattern scores a Quality ranking of 5 bars, with 5 bars of momentum underlying the breakout signal. The projected price target for the nearby futures suggests a minimum of $6.04 per bushel, which would be a meaningful retracement away from the current lows. A sharp increase in upside momentum could be generated by Friday’s report and propel the...

By Jonah S. Ford Grain futures bucked the trend of the broader commodities sector to close well off their session lows. Thursday’s volatility and higher close comes ahead of Friday’s monthly USDA crop report, which may prove supportive of the late-day rally. Corn futures appeared to be the strongest performer, breaking out from a longstanding Falling Wedge chart pattern identified by Autochartist.     Corn has been plumbing the depths of recent contract lows around the key support level of $5.75 per bushel with minimal buying interest. Thursday’s move above the Falling Wedge resistance sets the stage for a possible recovery in the near term. The pattern scores a Quality ranking of 5 bars, with 5 bars of momentum underlying the breakout signal. The projected price target for the nearby futures suggests a minimum of $6.04 per bushel, which would be a meaningful retracement away from the current lows. A sharp increase in upside momentum could be generated by Friday’s report and propel the...